{
  "market": {
    "market_name": "SYNTHETIC US annual insulated mug demand",
    "profile": "consumer",
    "top_down": {
      "method": "top-down",
      "TAM": 48000000.0,
      "SAM": 19200000.0,
      "SOM": 192000.0
    },
    "bottoms_up": {
      "method": "bottoms-up",
      "TAM": 24000000.0,
      "SAM": 9600000.0,
      "SOM": 96000.0,
      "implied_customers_at_SOM": 4000
    },
    "tam_divergence": 0.5,
    "flags": [
      "TRIANGULATION FAILED: top-down and bottoms-up TAM differ by 50% (> 40% tolerance). Reconcile before quoting a number."
    ],
    "method_and_assumptions": [
      "NEVER quote a single TAM number without stating the method and the assumptions below.",
      "Top-down TAM = total market value (cite the source: analyst report, gov stat).",
      "Bottoms-up TAM = total potential customers x annual price (cite both counts).",
      "SAM = TAM x serviceable fraction (geography/segment you can actually serve).",
      "SOM = SAM x realistic, capacity-constrained share you can win in the planning window."
    ]
  },
  "survey_original_planner": {
    "overall": {
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "margin_of_error": 0.05,
      "expected_proportion": 0.5,
      "population": 100,
      "n_unadjusted": 385,
      "n_with_fpc": 80,
      "fpc_applied": true,
      "z": 1.96
    },
    "segmentation": {
      "segment_margin_of_error": 0.08,
      "minimum_per_segment": 151,
      "recommended_total_with_segment_floors": 423,
      "segments": [
        {
          "name": "commuter",
          "population_share": 0.9,
          "proportional_quota": 272,
          "minimum_for_segment_moe": 151,
          "recommended_quota": 272
        },
        {
          "name": "desk",
          "population_share": 0.1,
          "proportional_quota": 31,
          "minimum_for_segment_moe": 151,
          "recommended_quota": 151
        }
      ]
    },
    "notes": [
      "A survey powered overall is NOT powered per reported segment \u2014 fund the segment floors.",
      "expected_proportion=0.5 is the conservative (maximum-variance) default.",
      "FPC matters when the sample is a large fraction of the population (small N)."
    ]
  }
}