# HarborMug: Japan market-entry decision and operating plan

## Decision

Prepare a **conditional February 2027 DTC pilot for HM-BLUE-001 only**, with a maximum of 100 units and USD3,000 (JPY450,000 at the planning exchange rate). Do not ship inventory or accept Japan orders until the launch gates below pass. The 90-day target is 60 paid, fulfilled, single-unit orders and JPY216,000 gross product revenue; this is a learning target, not a market-size estimate or profit forecast. Start the 90-day clock only when the store is ready to sell. If readiness slips, move the launch rather than compress review.

The merchant inputs and market evidence are synthetic. All targets, allocations and operating policies below are proposals; public references inform requirements but do not establish merchant eligibility or completed compliance.

The critical constraint is the missing Japan operating route: international delivery is currently disabled, Yamato is uncontracted, the native reviewer is not hired, and tax, import, fulfillment and return costs are unknown. A small budget may not cover required testing or a local operating partner. If it does not, stop before inventory commitment.

## Entry hypothesis and channel

Test whether clear Japanese care information, honest dimensions and a domestic return route make a mid-market stainless steel mug attractive to urban commuters aged 25–44, earning JPY3–6 million annually. The proposed JPY3,600 price matches USD24 only at the assumed USD1 = JPY150; willingness to pay remains unproven. Twelve Japanese-language inquiries in October justify a bounded test, not a demand forecast. Addressable revenue is unknown.

Use a Japanese-language DTC storefront, preferably a localized Shopify surface if the merchant's stack and provider eligibility permit. Google search is the initial acquisition channel. Monitor Rakuten search vocabulary without committing to a marketplace store. Amazon Japan, Rakuten and Yahoo Shopping are discovery candidates from the skill's starter table, not verified channel-share findings. An ordinary ceramic mug is the indirect substitute. The supplied fictional competitors suggest three testable differentiators:

| Fictional competitor | Supplied strength | Supplied gap | HarborMug response |
|---|---|---|---|
| KumoCup | Colors | Care clarity | Put hand-wash and microwave warnings beside purchase controls |
| NamiSteel | Shipping speed | Compact sizes | Show actual 9 × 9 × 19 cm dimensions; do not call it compact |
| AsaBottle | Marketplace reviews | Simple photography | Use uncluttered product and cleaning photographs |

Do not claim these brands represent observed Japanese competition. The main objection is overseas-return hassle; solve the return route before spending on traffic. Launch mugs only; no apparel or electronics. One SKU is appropriate because only one was supplied; do not invent a ten-SKU assortment.

## Commerce, payments and delivery

| Layer | Pilot requirement and owner |
|---|---|
| Devices | Design for the supplied assumed 80% mobile mix. Mia checks iPhone Safari and Android Chrome first, then desktop; assumed browser mix is Safari 50%, Chrome 45%, other 5%. Check 320/375/390 px widths, Japanese wrapping, price, warnings, policy links and final-order summary. |
| Language/support | Mia owns Japanese content and support workflow; hire a native Japanese category editor. Proposed staffed service: weekdays 10:00–17:00 JST, first response within one Japan business day; confirm staffing before advertising it. Alex handles exceptions and refunds requiring approval. |
| Payments | Launch with cards including JCB, Konbini and Rakuten Pay. Assumed preference mix is 55% / 30% / 15%, not measured market share. Confirm merchant-country eligibility and all fees before choosing a provider. |
| Delivery | Proposed Japan domestic stock and Yamato fulfillment after import clearance, with tracking and a domestic returns address. No direct US-to-consumer shipping promise while international delivery is disabled. |
| Returns | Proposed 30 days from delivery for unused goods; buyer pays change-of-mind return freight, merchant pays confirmed defect/wrong-item costs. State refund treatment of original shipping and all exceptions after legal review. Do not apply unused-only rules to override defect rights. |
| Reviews | Request honest verified-purchase feedback after delivery; no fabricated endorsements. Code feedback for cleaning, dimensions, delivery and return friction. No star rating until genuine eligible reviews exist. |

**Payment implementation order:** Alex first secures provider eligibility and quotes, then the implementer connects cards/JCB, Konbini and Rakuten Pay. The order is a build sequence; all three remain launch gates. [KOMOJU's Shopify documentation](https://help.komoju.com/hc/en-us/articles/4747456302366--Shopify-Payment-Methods-Available-with-KOMOJU) lists these options for merchants in Japan, which does not establish eligibility for this US merchant. [Shopify's Japan documentation](https://help.shopify.com/en/manual/payments/shopify-payments/supported-countries/japan/payment-methods) limits JCB to domestic Japanese customers paying in JPY and notes approval can take up to three weeks. Budget four weeks as a planning buffer, not a guaranteed onboarding lead time. Do not assume opening a Japan entity is affordable within this pilot.

Use whole-yen prices. JPY3,600 is the proposed final customer product price; finance must confirm tax-inclusive presentation and net receipts. Do not silently add tax at checkout. Do not auto-convert the US USD5 shipping fee or USD50 free-shipping threshold. Initially use one quoted flat domestic shipping fee, separately disclosed, with no free-shipping offer; publish only after the route is costed. Disable installments unless a separately reviewed provider option is justified.

Before release, test success, decline, cancellation, authentication, duplicated callbacks and refunds for each method in sandbox. For Konbini, reserve stock while payment is pending, display the provider's actual deadline, release expired reservations, and ship only after verified payment. Test delayed confirmation and reconciliation. Record payment attempt, pending, paid, expired, refunded and fulfilled states independently. Rakuten Pay redirects must return correctly on mobile. No test purchases or payment methods were used in preparing this plan. Controlled live success/refund checks by the merchant remain a final release requirement; if unavailable, do not sell.

**Delivery requirements:** obtain importer and customs broker responsibility, all-in inbound quote, tariff classification and tax treatment; establish clearance before domestic shipment. Confirm the measured packed weight and dimensions: supplied 0.35 kg and 9 × 9 × 19 cm describe the product, not a parcel tariff. Contract storage, pick/pack, damage handling, tracking, failed-delivery handling and domestic return inspection. No duty collection at the consumer's door under the proposed domestic-stock model. The US two-business-day dispatch and three-to-five-business-day delivery assumptions are not Japan promises. As a service target, validate dispatch within two Japan business days after payment and a postcode-specific transit table before publishing. [Yamato's delivery FAQ](https://faq.kuronekoyamato.co.jp/app/answers/detail/a_id/1633/) directs customers to route-specific delivery estimates; do not promise universal next-day delivery. Offer time slots only if the contracted service supports them.

Mia logs return requests, sends the domestic return instructions, and arranges inspection; Alex approves refunds. Finance reconciles provider refunds to the original order. Disclose method-specific refund routes and timing once contracted, particularly for cash-based Konbini. The supplied US return example does not establish a Japan policy or require an account action.

## Japanese product-page draft

This is a complete editorial draft for the supplied product facts, pending native review. The service block is a prelaunch holding message; replace it with approved price, shipping, payment and returns disclosures before enabling purchase. Blue is suggested by the SKU name but is not a confirmed product attribute, so the draft omits color. Do not describe vacuum construction, leak resistance, cup-holder fit, BPA status, dishwasher safety or temperature retention without evidence.

---

### HarborMug ステンレス製マグ 500mL

**毎日の一杯に。サイズも、お手入れ方法も、わかりやすく。**

容量500mLのステンレス製マグです。ご購入前に、本体サイズとお手入れ方法をご確認ください。

**販売予定価格：3,600円**

日本向けの販売開始時期、送料、お届け日数は現在準備中です。

#### 商品仕様

| 項目 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 容量 | 500mL |
| 素材 | ステンレス鋼（部品ごとの素材は確認中） |
| 本体サイズ | 9 × 9 × 19 cm |
| 重量 | 350g |
| 品番 | HM-BLUE-001 |

#### お手入れとご注意

- 手洗いしてください。
- 電子レンジでは使用できません。
- 熱い飲み物によるやけどにご注意ください。

#### ご購入前によくあるご質問

**食器洗い乾燥機は使えますか？**  
手洗いでお手入れしてください。

**大きさはどのくらいですか？**  
本体サイズは9 × 9 × 19 cm、容量は500mLです。お手持ちのマグや置き場所と比べてご確認ください。

**持ち運びの際に横にしても大丈夫ですか？**  
密閉性や横倒しでの使用については確認できていません。バッグの中での横倒し使用を想定した商品としてはご案内していません。

**日本への配送や返品はどうなりますか？**  
日本向けの配送・返品サービスは準備中です。販売開始前に、送料、お届けの目安、お支払い方法、返品条件をご案内します。

**日本向け販売準備中**

---

For the sales-ready version, Mia must replace the holding message and FAQ with confirmed tax-inclusive price, shipping fee and coverage, payment deadline, dispatch and transit estimates, return address/process/cost bearer, refund timing, seller disclosure and support links. Show the same information on the final confirmation screen, with an unambiguous Japanese order button such as 「注文を確定して支払う」 only where it accurately describes the payment flow. Native review must adapt the button for pending Konbini payment. Confirm whether dimensions include a handle and orient width/depth/height before relabeling the measurements. No claim of completed translation review is made.

## Image directions and listing adaptation

| Asset | Finished production direction | Japanese overlay / alt-text draft | Acceptance check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hero | Photograph the actual SKU on a light neutral surface, accurate color, full silhouette, no added accessories | Alt: 「HarborMug 500mL ステンレス製マグの全体写真」 | Product matches stock; no badges or invented certifications |
| Dimensions | Orthogonal view plus dimension arrows after measuring orientation; show a hand or ruler for scale | 「本体サイズ 9 × 9 × 19 cm」「容量 500mL」「重量 350g」 | Numbers match sample; distinguish product from packaging |
| Care | Show actual hand washing without concealing parts or implying soaking is allowed | 「手洗いしてください」「電子レンジ使用不可」 | Reviewer checks approved cleaning method and warning legibility |
| Everyday setting | Small urban desk with actual mug upright; restrained styling, natural lighting | 「毎日の一杯に」 | Avoid bag-interior, cycling, sealed-lid or spill-proof implications |
| Parts/detail | Show drinking opening and supplied components only after sample/BOM confirmation | Alt: 「マグの飲み口と付属部品」 | No invented lid, gasket or disassembly directions |

Use local Japanese settings where available and inclusive adult models if people appear; do not assume a particular body type or gender represents all buyers. Photograph the product rather than generate evidence of features. Deliver mobile crops and high-resolution originals, keep text out of the source photograph, and use accessible HTML captions. Mia owns a USD150 production ceiling; reduce the shot list to hero, dimensions and care if a quote exceeds it. Native editor signs off on overlays. These are production directions, not completed photo assets.

## Labeling and compliance review

Do not equate an insulated steel mug with a certified vacuum bottle. Alex must obtain construction drawings, full food-contact bill of materials (including any plastic, gasket, coating and lid), intended uses, origin, manufacturer details and applicable test records. No certifications are supplied. No certification marks or quantified insulation claims may appear.

| Review item | Required decision/evidence | Owner and planning allowance | Current status / release rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product classification | Does construction/use fall under the vacuum-bottle labeling rules? | Alex + Japan specialist; 1–2 weeks after documents | Unknown; no sale until classification is recorded |
| Quality label | If applicable, confirm prescribed product name, actual capacity, performance testing, component materials, warnings and responsible labeler contact | Specialist + supplier; allow 2–6 weeks including testing | Missing; test quote may exceed budget |
| Food-contact import | Confirm Food Sanitation Act route, importer, notification and required testing for all contact materials | Importer/broker + specialist; allow 2–6 weeks after full BOM | Missing; clearance required before domestic stock release |
| Polymer components | Review applicable positive-list obligations and conformity evidence if plastics are present | Specialist + supplier, same review window | Unknown; do not assume steel-only exemption for the whole assembly |
| Packaging | Review material identification and packaging/recycling responsibilities for the chosen importer/seller structure | Alex + specialist; 1–2 weeks | Unknown; determine applicability before printing |
| Online sale disclosures | Seller identity/contact, total price/fees, payment and delivery timing, cancellation/returns, final confirmation screen | Legal reviewer + Mia; 1–2 weeks | Missing; approved Japanese disclosures required |

Lead times above are scheduling assumptions, not official processing promises. [CAA's vacuum-bottle rules](https://www.caa.go.jp/policies/policy/representation/household_goods/law/law_07/item_015.html) apply to defined constructions and uses. If in scope, the rules require specified labeling and performance information, not simply a translated US label. [MHLW's import procedure](https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/kenkou_iryou/shokuhin/yunyu_kanshi/kanshi/index_00004.html) covers commercial imports of food-related products; notification and conformity must be resolved with the responsible importer.

**Japanese label working text:** 「品番：HM-BLUE-001／容量：500mL／お手入れ：手洗い／電子レンジ使用不可／熱い飲み物によるやけどにご注意ください」. This is a fact-and-warning draft, not a compliant final label. Add the classification-specific name, verified actual capacity in required units (0.5L if confirmed), component materials, required performance values and labeler contact only after review. Obtain safety instructions appropriate to the actual construction. Do not print unresolved fields.

The proposed 30-day unused-return policy needs legal review. [CAA's mail-order guidance](https://www.no-trouble.caa.go.jp/what/mailorder/) explains the default eight-day return framework and the role of clearly displayed special return terms; mail order does not have a general cooling-off rule identical to door-to-door sales. Have legal approve both the policy and its placement. A longer marketing window alone does not establish legal adequacy.

## Budget and economics

Alex is the decision owner and finance approver. Mia owns support/content. The reviewer, specialist, provider implementer and logistics partner are roles to procure, not staffed resources. No inventory shipment is authorized by this report.

| Budget ceiling | USD | Planning JPY | Release condition |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Native Japanese category editor | 300 | 45,000 | Named reviewer and agreed scope |
| Labeling/import/legal review and testing allowance | 500 | 75,000 | Scoped quote; resolve classification first |
| Image production | 150 | 22,500 | Actual sample and approved shot list |
| Store/payment setup and QA | 150 | 22,500 | Eligible provider and costed platform route |
| 100 units at USD8 | 800 | 120,000 | Readiness gates pass; authorize purchase separately |
| Freight/fulfillment allowance at USD4 per unit | 400 | 60,000 | All-in route quote; source shipping cost is only a proxy |
| Paid acquisition | 300 | 45,000 | Sales gates pass; release in USD50/100/150 stages |
| Returns/refund/contingency reserve | 400 | 60,000 | Alex releases against documented need |
| **Total** | **3,000** | **450,000** | Hard commitment ceiling, including fees and taxes |

The USD1,100 readiness envelope precedes the USD1,200 stock/route envelope; USD300 media and USD400 reserve remain controlled. Count all platform subscriptions, provider add-ons, testing, brokerage, duties, taxes and extra fulfillment against these envelopes or reserve. No sales receipts automatically replenish spending authority. If quotes cannot fit, stop or request a separately approved revised business case; do not omit a required check. The USD800 stock amount counts even if stock is transferred from existing inventory. Allocate a maximum of 100 units including review samples and replacements; reduce sellable inventory accordingly.

At JPY3,600, known planning costs are JPY1,200 product, JPY600 shipping proxy and JPY138 processing (3% + JPY30), leaving **JPY1,662 before taxes, additional logistics, returns and acquisition**. Reserving 5% of product receipts (JPY180) leaves JPY1,482. This is an economic refund allowance, not an observed Japan return rate. The contingency cash envelope funds actual refunds and overruns; do not add this accounting reserve twice to the cash budget.

Set a paid CAC target of **JPY750 (USD5)** and require at least **JPY300 contribution after acquisition per order**. That leaves only **JPY432 per order** for additional net tax, import, fulfillment, return-freight and provider/platform costs beyond the shipping proxy. At JPY600 extra costs, contribution after target CAC falls to JPY132 and fails the gate. Finance must rebuild the model with net receipts if the price includes tax; do not assume the full ticket is merchant revenue. Shipping income is conservatively excluded until the fee is settled; include both actual shipping receipts net of fees/tax and actual costs in the final model.

At the 60-order target, gross product revenue is JPY216,000 (USD1,440). The USD300 media cap at target CAC buys at most 60 paid-attributed orders. Fixed readiness spending is not recovered in this scenario: this pilot purchases evidence. No profitability or sales lift is claimed. At JPY300/order after-variable-cost contribution, recovery of USD1,100 readiness spending alone would require 550 orders, beyond the pilot stock ceiling.

Supporting calculations: [baseline-calculations.csv](baseline-calculations.csv), [pilot-budget.csv](pilot-budget.csv), [unit-economics.csv](unit-economics.csv). The sensitivity table treats additional costs as incremental to the USD4 shipping proxy; replace that proxy rather than double-counting a quoted service.

## Readiness gates and 90-day pilot

Before February, Mia and Alex should work backward at least 6–8 weeks for content, quotes and compliance. A missed gate moves the target date. Readiness work may use the stated envelope; stock, shipment and selling require Alex's recorded release.

| Gate | Required evidence and approver | Failure action |
|---|---|---|
| G0: viable route | Alex confirms eligible seller/importer/provider structure and quotes within USD3,000 | Stop if entity/partner costs make the cap infeasible |
| G1: product and consumer compliance | Specialist signs classification, label, safety, import route and online disclosures; native editor signs copy | Hold inventory and checkout until corrected |
| G2: economics and delivery | Finance signs actual cost model at ≥JPY300/order after JPY750 CAC; contracted domestic outbound/returns route and SLA | Reprice and retest willingness to pay, or stop |
| G3: sales release | Mia records mobile QA, payment/refund checks, paid-order reconciliation, tracking/return rehearsal, support coverage and dashboard; Alex signs | Remain in preparation; no paid traffic |

No gates are currently passed. Required production payment tests remain for the authorized merchant team; this planning task does not execute them.

| Phase | Scope and spend release | Success threshold | Stop / hold condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Days 1–30 | One SKU, DTC; USD50 ads; inspect first 10 fulfilled orders | At least 10 paid fulfilled orders, no critical checkout issue, ≥95% dispatch within approved SLA | Pause acquisition at USD50 if fewer than 10 paid-attributed orders; repair before next tranche |
| Days 31–60 | Same SKU, USD100 additional ads; improve care/dimension content from actual questions | Cumulative ≥30 fulfilled orders; conversion ≥2% after ≥1,000 eligible Japan sessions; paid CAC ≤JPY750 | Hold further spend if CAC >JPY1,000 after ≥10 paid-attributed orders or USD100 media, whichever first; stop if repair cannot restore cost gate |
| Days 61–90 | Same SKU, USD150 final ads; no automatic replenishment | ≥60 fulfilled orders; contribution ≥JPY300 after acquisition; dispatch ≥95%; unused-return request rate ≤8% on mature orders | No scale if targets miss; stop replenishment for negative contribution in two weekly reviews or >12% return requests after ≥25 mature deliveries |

Safety incident, suspected nonconformity, incorrect charging, or inability to refund triggers an immediate sales pause, regardless of sample size. Mia escalates to Alex the same business day; Alex freezes ads and affected checkout, investigates with the responsible specialist and fulfills customer remedies. Resume only after documented correction and relevant reviewer approval. Budget exhaustion stops new commitments. At day 90, missing the target does not authorize an extension; Alex may approve a separate capped learning test only with a specific fix and budget.

Phase 2, after a successful pilot and a mature returns review, deepens the mug category by at most two supplier-confirmed variants, keeping one channel. Require two consecutive four-week periods meeting cost, service and return gates before adding them. Phase 3 considers an adjacent drinkware category or a marketplace, one change at a time, after another quarter meeting the same gates and new category compliance review. Both phases have **USD0 currently authorized**; their quotes, working capital and caps must be approved separately. Hold expansion on any failed gate and stop the added variant/channel if its contribution is negative across two reviews or its mature return rate exceeds 12%. Do not expand into apparel or electronics.

## Measurement and operating review

| Metric | Supplied home baseline | Japan target / definition |
|---|---|---|
| Order conversion | 2.5% in both weeks | ≥2% paid completed orders / eligible Japan sessions; report pending Konbini separately |
| Product AOV | USD24 in both weeks | JPY3,600 for a single-unit pilot; reconcile discounts, tax and shipping separately |
| Refund value / gross | 5% in both weeks | Model allowance 5%; report actual value separately from returned-order rate |
| Blended ad cost/order | USD3 in both weeks | Not a paid CAC baseline; paid CAC ≤JPY750 using attributed paid customers |
| Gross ROAS | 8× in both weeks | Diagnostic only; does not measure margin or incrementality |
| Returned orders | Not supplied | ≤8% requests / delivered orders with full 30-day eligibility; pause threshold above |
| Reviews / repeat | Not supplied | Request review from every eligible delivered customer; report response rate and sentiment without a fabricated baseline; repeat purchase diagnostic only |
| Search-term match | Not supplied | ≥80% of coded paid clicks relevant to mug/care/size intent after 100 coded clicks |
| Payment performance | Assumed preference only | Report paid / initiated by method; ≥90% technical completion for card/wallet attempts excluding valid declines; ≥60% paid-before-expiry for Konbini, assessed after 20 attempts per method |

Prior-to-current orders, gross, refunds, spend and sessions each grew 20%; conversion, AOV and refund-value ratio were unchanged. These are home business comparisons, not evidence of Japan growth. Do not infer return incidence from refund dollars.

Before G3, Mia prepares a dashboard with source, device/browser, search term, payment method and state, net receipts, actual variable costs, dispatch, delivery, return eligibility and coded feedback. Report organic and paid sessions/orders separately; attribute paid CAC consistently and report blended acquisition cost alongside it. Investigate a payment funnel >10 percentage points below the other methods after 20 attempts, adjusting for Konbini's payment delay. Do not mistake its pending status for checkout failure.

Mia prepares weekly reviews; Alex approves tranche releases and corrective actions. Reconcile orders and provider settlements weekly. At day 90, orders delivered late in the pilot have not completed the 30-day return window: defer expansion until those cohorts mature. Compare cleaning/dimension complaints and verified-review sentiment with home data only after collecting comparable home data. Replan quarterly, including price, channel, payment mix and economics.

## Twelve-month merchandising calendar: February 2027–January 2028

This is the first selling-year calendar, conditional on release. National-holiday dates use the [Cabinet Office calendar](https://www8.cao.go.jp/chosei/shukujitsu/gaiyou.html). Seasonal shopping ideas are merchandising hypotheses, not verified demand peaks. Obon and gifting windows vary; platform sale dates remain unannounced in this plan. Confirm dates and carrier closures before each campaign. Mia prepares creative 6–8 weeks ahead; Alex confirms stock and service capacity four weeks ahead. With one SKU, prioritize practical care and size information over invented seasonal variants.

| Month | Event / merchandising purpose | Operational action | Paid-media authority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2027 | Conditional debut; holidays Feb 11 and 23 | Everyday desk imagery; clear care; soft release after gates; publish closure exceptions | USD50 pilot tranche |
| Mar | Spring transition, graduation/new-job gifting hypothesis; equinox Mar 21, substitute holiday Mar 22 | Size comparison and gift suitability questions; no gift-wrap promise without supplier quote | USD100 pilot tranche if gates pass |
| Apr | New school/work routines; Showa Day Apr 29 | Everyday desk use; day-90 review; confirm Golden Week dispatch notices | USD150 final pilot tranche |
| May | Golden Week May 3–5; Mother's Day May 9 as optional gifting theme | Protect service capacity through holidays; reuse accurate imagery; no unsupported delivery deadline | USD0 approved beyond pilot |
| Jun | Rainy-season desk-use hypothesis; Father's Day Jun 20 | Cleaning guide; test gift messaging only after feedback; do not imply waterproof construction | USD0; separate phase-2 approval |
| Jul | Summer drinks theme; Marine Day Jul 19 | Show beverage use only within verified instructions; no hours-of-cooling claims | USD0; replan quarterly |
| Aug | Mountain Day Aug 11; variable Obon closures | Confirm carrier/warehouse staffing; desk and home imagery rather than spill-proof travel claims | USD0 |
| Sep | Return-to-routine; Respect for the Aged Day Sep 20, equinox Sep 23 | Readable specification cards; review summer returns; no platform event dates assumed | USD0; new phase budget required |
| Oct | Cooler-weather desk use; Sports Day Oct 11 | Refresh warnings for hot drinks; assess adjacent drinkware only after phase gates | USD0 |
| Nov | Culture Day Nov 3, Labor Thanksgiving Nov 23; optional Black Friday Nov 26 | Prepare December stock and cutoff plan; discount only with positive contribution and approved budget | USD0 |
| Dec | Year-end / oseibo / Christmas gifting hypotheses | Local reviewer checks appropriateness of single-mug gifting; publish actual delivery cutoffs and closures; no invented endorsements | USD0 |
| Jan 2028 | New Year Jan 1; return-to-work | Confirm closures and January holiday dates against the 2028 official calendar when available; handle returns; annual decision review | USD0 |

Rakuten sale campaigns are monitoring opportunities only; no participation, dates or incremental spend is assumed. If launch is delayed, preserve this calendar's actual event dates and move the 90-day tranches with the selling start. Avoid a forced holiday launch when the service is unready.

## Completion and release status

Completed here: English operating plan, Japanese editorial product-page and label drafts, image directions, phased budget, calculated baseline and cost sensitivities, launch gates, stop rules and first-year calendar. Supporting evidence and release checklist are in [evidence-and-release.md](evidence-and-release.md).

Release remains blocked by native review, product construction/BOM and compliance evidence, merchant/provider eligibility, actual landed/return costs, domestic fulfillment contract, approved disclosures and checkout tests. These are the gaps that determine whether the USD3,000 pilot is feasible. No sales, shipments, integrations, endorsements or operational improvements have been performed or measured.