# HarborMug promotion pricing decision

**Hold HM-BLUE-001 at $24 plus $5 shipping ($29 delivered). Do not launch a blanket price match.** Keep $21–$24 as the conditional planning range: $24 is the approved recommendation in this analysis; $21 is a possible controlled promotion only if incremental demand can justify it. No pricing or account changes have been made.

All business observations and sales data in this report are synthetic examples, not live market evidence. Prices are USD, for one mug delivered domestically, before tax. The review compares 27 October with 3 November 2026.

At $24, merchandise contribution is $12 per mug, or 50% of item revenue. Matching C2 at $21 reduces it to $9 and requires 160 units instead of 120 to preserve $1,440 contribution. Matching C1 at $16 reduces it to $4 and requires 360 units. Neither demand increase is supported by the supplied observations. Hold with moderate confidence; confidence in any sales forecast is low because no price-response evidence was supplied. Confirm HarborMug inventory before committing promotional volume.

## Delivered-price comparison

The delivered gap is **HarborMug delivered price minus competitor delivered price**; its percentage uses the competitor delivered price as denominator. Discounts below are observed changes from the prior price, not verified advertised discount claims. No additional coupons apply.

| Seller | Prior → current item | Observed reduction | Shipping | Delivered | HarborMug gap | Availability / promotion | Features | Rating / reviews |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|
| C1 | $20 → $16 | $4 / 20.00% | $5 | $21 | +$8 / 38.10% | In stock / yes | 3 | 4.2 / 900 |
| C2 | $23 → $21 | $2 / 8.70% | $5 | $26 | +$3 / 11.54% | In stock / yes | 3 | 4.5 / 500 |
| C3 | $25 → $25 | $0 / 0% | $5 | $30 | −$1 / −3.33% | Out of stock / no | 4 | 4.6 / 1,300 |
| C4 | $28 → $28 | $0 / 0% | $5 | $33 | −$4 / −12.12% | In stock / no | 4 | 4.7 / 600 |
| C5 | Not supplied → $22 | Unknown | $5 | $27 | +$2 / 7.41% | In stock / no; new entrant | 2 | 4.1 / 12 |
| HarborMug | $24 → $24 | $0 / 0% | $5 | $29 | — | Stock not supplied / no discount supplied | 3 | 4.4 / 180 |

C1 is the shared product in the supplied Amazon context. C2 is the closest alternative on the documented feature rubric: capacity, insulation and steel body. C3 and C4 additionally document a leakproof lid; C5 documents capacity and steel only. HarborMug has no documented leakproof claim. These are attribute matches, not proof of equal performance. C2 also has a higher rating and more reviews than HarborMug, making its $3 delivered advantage a material competitive pressure. HarborMug's rating advantage over C1 does not establish willingness to pay $8 more.

![Delivered-price, feature and rating positioning](positioning.svg)

HarborMug is fourth cheapest among six quoted offers: three of five competitors are cheaper, placing it at the 60th percentile by the share of competitor offers below its price. Among the four available competitor offers, three are cheaper (75%). It is upper-mid priced overall and premium priced against the three-feature alternatives. C3's unavailable price is a reference, not a purchasable substitute. Feature and review differences prevent treating every offer as interchangeable.

## Margin trade-off and promotion alternatives

Merchandise contribution = discounted item price − $8 unit cost − $4 fulfillment shipping cost. It excludes the $5 customer shipping receipt, advertising, refunds, tax and payment fees. Merchandise margin uses discounted item revenue as denominator. These figures are contribution, not net profit.

| Action | Item / delivered | Discount from $24 | Contribution per unit / margin | Contribution at 120 units | Change versus hold | Units needed to preserve $1,440 |
|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|---|
| Hold | $24 / $29 | 0% | $12 / 50.00% | $1,440 | $0 | 120 |
| Small test | $23 / $28 | 4.17% | $11 / 47.83% | $1,320 | −$120 | 131 (+9.17%) |
| Intermediate test | $22 / $27 | 8.33% | $10 / 45.45% | $1,200 | −$240 | 144 (+20.00%) |
| Match C2 | $21 / $26 | 12.50% | $9 / 42.86% | $1,080 | −$360 | 160 (+33.33%) |
| Contract-floor reference | $18 / $23 | 25.00% | $6 / 33.33% | $720 | −$720 | 240 (+100.00%) |
| Match C1 | $16 / $21 | 33.33% | $4 / 25.00% | $480 | −$960 | 360 (+200.00%) |

The $18 reference is the supplied C1 advertised-price contract floor; it is not an established HarborMug margin target or a verified policy applicable to HarborMug. No discount below $21 is recommended.

Including collected customer shipping gives $17 contribution per single-mug order at the current price, or $2,040 for 120 orders before advertising and refunds. It gives $14 at $21 and $9 at $16; preserving $2,040 requires 146 and 227 orders respectively. The primary recommendation uses the merchant's requested merchandise contribution convention consistently. Free shipping starts at $50, so these shipping-inclusive figures cannot be extended to multi-unit baskets without recalculation.

A lower price could increase conversion, but the magnitude is unknown. At unchanged 120-unit volume, matching C2 costs $360 contribution; matching C1 costs $960. A raise could increase unit contribution but risks losing additional orders against cheaper available offers. C3's stockout alone does not justify a raise while C1 and C2 remain available. No measured sales lift or profit uplift is claimed.

## Weekly signals and alerts

- **Red — C1 fell 20% on the shared product.** Delivered price fell from $25 to $21 (16%). This exceeds the Skill's 15% price-drop alert on both bases. Preserve the supplied dated observation and recheck availability and checkout price before responding.
- **Yellow — C1 and C2 are both promoting.** Two of five competitors have promotions. This may signal promotional pressure; two observations do not establish broader category softening or promotion duration.
- **Green — C3 is out of stock on an item designated high volume in the supplied data.** Potential substitution opportunity, but no lost-demand quantity is supplied and C4 still offers the same four documented attributes. Hold price and emphasize HarborMug's documented features if own stock is confirmed.
- **New entrant — C5 at $27 delivered.** Moderate watch priority: it undercuts HarborMug by $2 but has fewer documented features and only 12 reviews. No prior price exists, so do not classify it as a price cut.

Amazon's seven daily snapshots show C1 winning 3/7 (42.86%), HarborMug 2/7 (28.57%) and C2 2/7 (28.57%). The sequence is C1 → HarborMug → C1 → C2 → C1 → HarborMug → C2. Ownership changes between every adjacent snapshot. This establishes observed rotation only; it does not measure time-weighted share, continuous ownership, sales share or the effect of price.

C1's supplied advertised price of $16 is $2 (11.11%) below the synthetic $18 MAP floor. The context says promotions are covered and only C1's authorized HM-BLUE-001 listing is covered; C2–C5 are alternatives. This is a potential contract breach for merchant verification, not grounds for reporting other sellers. The supplied dated record is retained in the evidence files; no original listing screenshot or live URL was supplied. Obtain that evidence and verify the contract before any external escalation. No report has been sent.

The merchant's prior/current weekly figures show orders 100 → 120, gross item revenue $2,400 → $2,880, refunds $120 → $144, ad spend $300 → $360 and sessions 4,000 → 4,800: each rose 20%. Orders per session stayed 2.5%; item revenue per order stayed $24; refunds/gross stayed 5%; ad spend per order stayed $3. This is more traffic at unchanged observed conversion, not evidence that a discount drove growth.

At the current price, merchandise contribution before refunds and ads rose from $1,200 to $1,440. Subtracting reported refunds and ads gives a simplified residual of $780 → $936 (+$156), assuming one mug per order and no recovered costs. Including $5 shipping receipts per order gives $1,280 → $1,536. Refund shipping treatment and recovered stock are unknown, so these residuals are not accounting profit or a reliable discount forecast.

## Prioritized operating decision and change triggers

1. **Avoid the $16 blanket match: protect $960 at the assumed 120 units.** Reobserve C1's delivered checkout price, exact shared product and stock, and verify its promotion end date and MAP evidence. A persistent in-stock $21 delivered offer combined with measured lost conversion or Buy Box sales would trigger a new analysis. A lower listing price alone does not establish that 360 units are achievable.
2. **Hold $24; consider a bounded $21 test only with demand evidence.** Matching C2 risks $360 at unchanged volume. Compare contribution over equal traffic and comparable periods, including ad cost and refunds. Under the primary convention, require at least 160 units per equivalent 120-unit baseline opportunity to preserve contribution, with costs unchanged. Stop or revert if total contribution falls. Additional acquisition cost raises that threshold. A cheaper offer disappearing or ending its promotion strengthens the hold decision.
3. **Monitor C3 restocking and C5 gaining traction.** C3 returning at $30 delivered would remove the stockout opportunity but would still be $1 above HarborMug. C5 documenting insulation or materially stronger review evidence at $27 delivered would strengthen its comparability and justify reassessment. A raise above $24 needs evidence of demand retention and fewer viable alternatives; neither is established here.

Use the existing accurate product description during the promotion planning period: “500ml insulated stainless steel mug.” No new customer-facing campaign copy or target language was requested, so no promotional claims or translations are added.

## Supporting deliverables

- [comparison.csv](comparison.csv): recalculated competitor price changes, delivered gaps and feature/rating evidence.
- [offer_scenarios.csv](offer_scenarios.csv): six price scenarios, both contribution conventions and whole-unit break-even thresholds.
- [positioning.svg](positioning.svg): standalone price, feature and rating map.
- [source_brief.csv](source_brief.csv), [source_context.json](source_context.json), [source_merchant.json](source_merchant.json): supplied evidence retained unchanged.

The material decision gap is demand response: neither discount elasticity nor promotion duration is supplied. HarborMug inventory also needs confirmation before a volume promotion. These gaps support holding price rather than assuming a match will pay for itself.